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NET Power Inc. (NPWR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • NPWR exited Q1 2025 with “over $500 million” in cash, cash equivalents and investments; management reiterated a 2025 spend plan of ~$190M net of interest (G&A ~$45M, La Porte/R&D ~$50M, SN1 and Baker turbine ~$100M), targeting year-end cash near ~$350M .
  • Reported Diluted EPS (Continuing Ops) worsened materially YoY and sequentially; S&P Global’s tracked Primary EPS actual for Q1 2025 was -$0.4137 vs consensus -$0.1141, a significant miss; revenue remains pre-commercial (consensus $0) [functions.GetEstimates*].
  • SN1 cost guidance unchanged from Q4: total installed cost estimated at $1.7–$2.0B; schedule pushed out, with earliest online no earlier than 2029; post-FEED cost-down/value engineering continues, and coastal multi-unit modularity is being studied to improve LCOE .
  • La Porte demo testing: Phase 1 and Phase 2 expected to complete in 2025; unplanned downtime for site repairs in Q1 but testing to resume in Q2; Phase 3 and 4 expected in 2026–2027, funded from balance sheet .
  • Catalyst: Management’s public framing that the share price is “near our cash value,” implying little value for the technology; 2025 deliverables (testing, cost-down path, modular feasibility) are key narrative drivers for re-rating if met .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Liquidity preserved: “We have no debt, and we exited the first quarter with approximately $500 million of cash and cash equivalents” with a plan to exit 2025 near ~$350M after advancing testing and cost-down milestones .
  • Cost optimization focus: “We’re working to improve the project economics… mainly by reducing the total installed cost,” with coastal multi-unit deployments targeted to reduce per-unit capital and LCOE .
  • Testing roadmap intact: “Both Phases 1 and 2 are expected to be completed in 2025… Preparations are underway for testing Phases 3 and 4, expected to be completed in 2026 and 2027” .

What Went Wrong

  • SN1 economics challenged: FEED showed a higher-than-expected total installed cost ($1.7–$2.0B) and the need to pause long-lead releases; timeline now points to earliest online no earlier than 2029 .
  • Inflation/supply-chain headwinds: Management cited tight global energy equipment supply chains, cost escalation in engineered equipment and craft labor; CCGT cost benchmarks up sharply (>$2,200/kW), complicating near-term deflation hopes .
  • Q1 operational hiccup: La Porte testing faced “unplanned downtime for site repairs,” pushing Phase 1 resumption to Q2 2025; still expect Phases 1–2 completion in 2025 .

Financial Results

Reported financials (company fundamentals)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenues ($USD Millions)N/A*N/A*N/A*
Diluted EPS - Continuing Operations ($USD)N/A*-0.4518*-1.5501 [functions.GetFinancials*]
Net Income - (IS) ($USD Millions)N/A*-34.32*-119.35 [functions.GetFinancials*]
EBIT ($USD Millions)N/A*-50.44*-58.66*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)N/A*-45.96*-36.97*

Notes:

  • Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via GetFinancials. Values may reflect “cash and equivalents” vs “cash, equivalents and investments” differences and standardized definitions. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Company did not disclose revenue detail in the Q1 2025 8-K; NPWR remains pre-commercial .

Q1 2025 Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ1 2025 EstimateQ1 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-0.1141*-0.4137*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)0.0*N/A*

Notes:

  • Coverage depth: EPS (# of estimates) = 2; Revenue (# of estimates) = 1 [functions.GetEstimates*].
  • Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Liquidity (company disclosure vs standardized metric)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash, cash equivalents and investments ($USD Millions)~580 533 >500
Cash And Equivalents ($USD Millions, S&P Global metric)N/A*329.23*300.03*

Notes:

  • Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 company disclosures include “investments,” while the standardized metric excludes them . Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
SN1 Total Installed CostProject$1.7–$2.0B (post-FEED estimate) $1.7–$2.0B; value engineering ongoing Maintained; pursuing cost-down
SN1 Timeline (online)ProjectEarliest online no earlier than 2029 Earliest online no earlier than 2029; schedule contingent on capital and cost-down Maintained
La Porte Testing Phases 1–22025On track for 2025 Phases 1–2 “expected to be completed in 2025”; Phase 1 resume in Q2 after repairs Maintained with operational note
La Porte Phases 3–42026–2027Expected 2026–2027 Expected 2026–2027; funded from balance sheet Maintained
2025 Spend Plan (net of interest)FY 2025Not previously quantified in Q4 release~$190M: G&A ~$45M; La Porte/R&D ~$50M; SN1 + Baker turbine ~$100M New quantitative outline
Year-end Cash TargetFY 2025Not previously quantified“Nearly $350 million” expected exiting 2025 New quantitative outline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prior-2)Q4 2024 (Prior-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/data center load growthFramed massive 24/7 clean power TAM; hybrid oxygen storage to support peaking + data center baseload Reinforced load growth, tight supply chains; multi-unit fleets aligned with gigawatt-scale sites Continued emphasis; coastal multi-unit to reduce LCOE; dialogues with “big tech” ongoing Increasing focus on co-location and scale
Supply chain/inflationCommissioning and long-lead orders; cost pressure noted FEED showed cost inflation and tight supply; CCGT cost benchmarks rose >$2,200/kW No near-term deflation expected; cost-down via modularization/coastal siting Persisting headwind; strategy shifts to modularization
Modular multi-unit/coastal strategyConcept introduced; economies of scale and shared systems Feasibility study launched; coastal sites to avoid inland logistics Active advanced design study; 2–4 powertrains per site; coastal access emphasized Execution progressing
La Porte validationPhase 1 begun; >140k construction hours to upgrade Phase 1 burner ignition; >140 fired hours; 4-phase plan through 2027 Phases 1–2 expected 2025 despite downtime; resume Q2; Phases 3–4 in 2026–2027 On track with minor delays
Regulatory/legal (45Q)Post-election outlook supportive; 45Q seen as bipartisan Discussion of potential changes; scenarios could increase $/ton Continued support narrative; potential 45Q uplift scenarios reiterated Constructive backdrop
PartnershipsAir Liquide ASU; Baker JDA; origination hubs in MISO/Alberta Baker-Woodside industrial-scale TDA; Zachry FEED completion Strategic owners cited (Oxy, Constellation, Baker, SK, Rice); industrial-scale licensing path Broadening ecosystem

Management Commentary

  • “We have no debt, and we exited the first quarter with approximately $500 million of cash and cash equivalents, earning roughly 5% interest per year… For the full year, we're budgeting to spend approximately $190 million net of interest income…” — Danny Rice, CEO .
  • “We expect to realize fairly meaningful cost reductions with multiunit deployments, particularly in locations with coastal access.” — Danny Rice, CEO .
  • “Once we resume testing we expect to complete the first two phases this year… beginning preparations for phase three and four testing in 2026 and 2027.” — Mark Horstman, COO .
  • “Net Power's current trading price is near our cash value, implying the market is assigning little value to our technology.” — Danny Rice, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • The Q1 2025 transcript provided prepared remarks without a published Q&A section; management reiterated 2025 spend plan, liquidity, cost-down priorities, coastal multi-unit feasibility, and La Porte testing timelines .
  • Guidance clarifications (from prior quarter Q&A context): SN1 cost inflation drivers (engineered equipment, labor, Permian-site specifics); earliest online 2029; modular/coastal strategy milestones to come; funding gap options include project-level, topco, government programs, and commercial partnerships .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS: Consensus -$0.1141 vs actual -$0.4137 — a significant miss likely reflecting higher operating expenses and standardized EPS definitions; coverage limited (2 EPS estimates) [functions.GetEstimates*].
  • Revenue: Consensus $0.0; NPWR remains pre-commercial with no revenue disclosed in the Q1 2025 8-K [functions.GetEstimates*] .
  • Outlook: Street models may need to incorporate the updated 2025 spend cadence (~$190M net of interest) and ongoing cost-down program timing, as well as the maintained SN1 cost range and timeline; limited coverage depth suggests potential estimate volatility as milestones progress .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Liquidity runway: With >$500M cash/equivalents/investments and no debt, NPWR can fund 2025 testing and cost-down initiatives; year-end cash targeted near ~$350M after ~$190M spend net of interest .
  • Cost-down thesis: The path to competitive LCOE hinges on coastal, modular multi-unit deployments and value engineering; 2025 should quantify savings to support financing and commercial viability .
  • Testing execution is pivotal: Completion of Phases 1–2 in 2025 and preparations for Phases 3–4 will advance technology readiness and credibility for SN1 and future deployments .
  • SN1 economics and timing unchanged: Cost range $1.7–$2.0B and earliest online no earlier than 2029; narrative likely shifts as value engineering and coastal feasibility milestones deliver tangible cost reductions .
  • Equity narrative: Management’s view that shares trade near cash underscores upside optionality tied to 2025 execution and demonstration of a credible cost-down/LCOE pathway .
  • Policy tailwinds plausible: 45Q structure remains supportive, with scenarios that could increase $/ton; coastal siting benefits from existing infrastructure .
  • Trading setup: Near-term stock moves likely keyed to La Porte Phase 1 resumption, completion of Phases 1–2, and any quantified modular/coastal cost-down outputs; funding signals (project/topco/partners) could catalyze sentiment .

Appendix: Additional Context and Sources

Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release (8-K 2.02)

  • Highlights: liquidity >$500M, SN1 cost reduction initiative, modular multi-unit feasibility, La Porte Phase 1–2 in 2025, Phase 3–4 in 2026–2027 .

Prior Quarters

  • Q4 2024: FEED completed; SN1 cost $1.7–$2.0B; long-lead releases paused; earliest online no earlier than 2029; cash/cash equivalents/investments $533M .
  • Q3 2024: Phase 1 validation commenced; LNTP ~$90M for turboexpander; cash/investments ~$580M; multi-unit site/economies of scale rationale introduced .

Selected Quotes

  • “We expect to exit 2025 with two stages of LaPorte testing completed… and nearly $350 million of cash on hand.” — Danny Rice .
  • “We’re continuing to move forward with our feasibility study for a standardized modular multi unit plant… potentially two to four powertrains… on the Gulf Coast or any coastal site” — Mark Horstman .
  • “This discrepancy really underscores a significant dislocation in how the market values our clean, firm power solution…” — Danny Rice .

Notes:

  • Values marked with * in tables are retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via GetFinancials/GetEstimates. Values retrieved from S&P Global.